What Will--And Won't--Happen in 2008

It's that time of year again, when every half-wit with a Web site makes predictions about the world of tech. We're no exception--but we decided to do things a little differently.

We picked the ten most common predictions from scores of trend watchers, and then picked them apart using our secret weapon: a Magic 8-Ball. (Full disclosure: In some cases we had to shake the ball a few times to achieve the right answer.) Sometimes we agree with the prognosticators; other times, we don't. Predictable, no?

Read on, and then post your take on our predictions--or add your own--in the comments below.

1. The Internet Will Melt Down

Magic 8-Ball says: Very doubtful

Like one of Aunt Agnes's fruitcakes, this prediction keeps coming back year after year. And as always, it looks better than it tastes. Comcast, Cox, and other major Internet service providers already throttle BitTorrent traffic in an effort to conserve bandwidth. The Nemertes Research Group has predicted that without a massive surge of infrastructure investment, the Net will suffer brownouts due to audio and video downloads within two years. The Economist posits that in 2008 the Internet will look less like an information superhighway and more like a mall parking lot at Christmas: You'll get where you're going eventually, but it won't be pretty.

A problem? You bet. As in the past, though, we think the death of the Net has been slightly exaggerated. It will seem slower, because everyone will be accessing it more from slower mobile networks. Some ISPs will be forced to perform long-overdue upgrades to their infrastructure, which may cause some headaches. But there's still plenty of dark fiber waiting to be lit up, and eventually people will get the fat 100-mbps pipes to their homes that the telecoms keep promising--probably just in time for someone else to predict the next Net meltdown.

2. Social Networks Face Security, Financial Woes

Magic 8-Ball says: It is decidedly so

Over the next 12 months, social networks will look less like a social phenomenon and more like a social disease, according to some digital Nostradami. MySpace's problems with spam and malware are well documented. Security wonk Richard Stiennon expects the same nastiness to infect Facebook and other major networks in 2008, most likely via widgets.

On the business side, Searchblog's John Battelle predicts severe growing pains and a need for some adult supervision at Facebook. CNN's Paul La Monica questions whether these networks will really be able to cash in on all that user data they're sitting on. On the other hand, eMarketer projects a 70 percent surge in social network ad revenues, though the big sites will consume most of that.

Our take: Second- and third-tier social networks will start to shake out like fleas on a wet dog, while the larger ones will enjoy less hype and suffer more hard realities--including security threats. Wherever tens of millions of users go, malware authors inevitably follow.

3. DRM Is Dead, Jim

Magic 8-Ball says: Don't count on it

Digital rights management schemes took it on the chin in 2007. First, Steve Jobs dissed DRM on Apple's site, and then his company released EMI's catalog on the iTunes Store in a DRM-free form for 30 cents extra per tune (later slashed back to 99 cents). Last month, Warner Music announced that it would follow EMI and Universal Music in allowing Amazon to sell its music sans digital restrictions, leaving Sony BMG Entertainment as the last major holdout. Meanwhile, Radiohead elected to sell DRM-free music directly to consumers for whatever amount they want to pay--bypassing both the record companies and the online stores--and other bands such as Nine Inch Nails and Oasis announced plans to do the same.

So you can't really blame prognosticators for declaring that digital rights management will go the way of the 8-track tape in 2008. They'd probably be right--if you ignore Napster, Rhapsody, Yahoo Music, Zune, and other services that still use DRM to limit where and when you can listen to the music you've paid for. And when you consider movies and video, forget about it: Some form of copy protection software will lock that content up for years to come.

DRM is hardly the picture of health, but don't send flowers yet. It's still a long way from the grave.

4. Open Software and Open Networks Will Dominate

Magic 8-Ball says: Ask again later

Open-source software meets open wireless networks, fostering an unbridled era of innovation and consumer freedom. Right? Well, maybe one day, but don't bet the bank on it in 2008. Phones based on Google's Android mobile OS will appear later this year, cracking open the proprietary world of handset software. But AT&T, the top wireless carrier in the United States, has yet to sign on to the Open Handset Alliance, and number two Verizon's support for Android is still a little vague. Even then, only about one in ten handsets sold each year are smart phones that could take advantage of Android.

For the desktop, Dell, Everex, and Lenovo began selling cheap Linux machines to consumers in 2007, but less than 1 percent of the world's PCs run an open-source OS, according to Web surveys conducted by Net Applications.

Meanwhile, Microsoft Office remains the Joseph Stalin of productivity suites, capturing 95 percent of revenues, according to IDC. Open-source alternatives such as OpenOffice, StarOffice, ThinkFree, and Google Docs and Spreadsheets don't even amount to a rounding error in that calculation. Will the market be more open than ever? Yes, and that's a good thing. But will open platforms dominate? Not this year, Sparky.

5. Everything's Going Mobile

Magic 8-Ball says: You may rely on it

Hot new desktops? Yawn. The surge of fanboy infatuation with Apple's iPhone is all the evidence you need that the action these days is in cool connected devices you carry on your hip. That this trend will easily spill over into 2008 and beyond is a no-brainer, say observers.

Google's Android mobile operating system should spur a new generation of Web-savvy handsets to compete with the Jesus Phone, which itself will benefit from Apple's release of a third-party developer kit next month. The much-rumored iPhone 2.0 will appear some time in 2008 and will likely sport faster 3G network connections and possibly built-in GPS, predicts Yahoo Tech columnist (and PC World contributor) Christopher Null.

The mobile movement consists of more than just phones, too. Amazon's Kindle e-book reader--which uses Sprint Nextel's 3G EvDO network to stay always connected--sold out in 5.5 hours last fall, according to Amazon chieftain Jeff Bezos. New batches of ultramobile PCs are in the offing, as well, including possibly an Apple Tablet, according to online rumor mills that Apple hasn't sued out of existence (yet), à la Think Secret.

The flip side? Only about one in three Internet users have ever accessed the Net from a handheld device, according to Ipsos Insight. For the foreseeable future, the mobile Web will complement desktop surfing, not replace it, for most folks.

Predictions for 2008, Numbers 6 Through 10

6. Green Is the New Black

Magic 8-Ball says: Outlook good

You don't have to be Al Gore to notice that the environmental movement has swept over the technology industry. But this may be the year that "going green" changes from a trendy marketing slogan into a practical reality.

Gartner has identified green IT as one of its top ten strategic technologies for 2008, and Technology Futures has declared it the number one tech trend for the coming year. Dell, HP, Intel, and two dozen other companies have introduced the Climate Savers Computing Initiative to encourage PC makers to use more energy-efficient components. And many Net-centric businesses have realized that cutting their electricity bills by building more efficient and eco-friendly data centers gives them a competitive advantage.

The bottom line: Instead of "greenwashing" their image to make themselves look good without really changing anything, technology companies in 2008 will see green tech as a way to save themselves some green, as in money. And that, more than the desire for positive PR, will drive environmentalism into corporate strategies.

7. Hackers Get Political

Magic 8-Ball says: Without a doubt

IDG News predicts that China will create an international incident by hacking into another government's systems in 2008. Considering that Chinese hackers successfully stole U.S. military secrets in 2004 and are believed to be behind a "spear phishing" attack on the Oak Ridge Weapons Lab last fall, that's not a particularly big stretch. But why limit it to China? The total cybershutdown of Estonia last year was traced to Russian hackers ticked off because the Estonian government moved a statue of a Soviet war hero. British spy masters at MI5 warn that at least 20 foreign intelligence agencies are actively spying in cyberspace, with China and Russia as the top two culprits.

But the biggest political threat may be within our own borders. Symantec warns of hackers subverting the 2008 presidential election--not necessarily by altering vote counts, but by diverting campaign contributions and using politically oriented phishing e-mail and malware-laden Web sites to steal information.

Two safe bets: We will be living and surfing in an increasingly scary world. And many users will continue to do nothing to secure their PCs, because it's still too big a hassle.

8. Google Stumbles

Magic 8-Ball says: Outlook not so good

After years of sublime success, the not-so-little search engine that could is primed for a fall, say several prognosticators. John Battelle predicts Wall Street will become frustrated with Google's massive attention deficit disorder and command the company to focus on its only profitable businesses: search and AdSense.

Christopher Null believes Google will be smacked down in its bid for the 700-MHz spectrum, as heavyweights such as AT&T and Verizon do whatever it takes to snuff out cheaper alternatives to broadband and cellular Net access. Google Blogoscoped author Phillip Lenssen says Google's insatiable appetite for data puts it at risk for a huge privacy/security scandal, one where a breach in a single Google application could expose consumers' data in the dozens of others. Lenssen adds that the company is likely to start losing talented but exhausted employees, who will be sorely tempted to cash out their stock options at $700 a pop.

Nobody can ride the same wave forever, and Google's wildly diverse ventures are only growing broader. But when you own nearly 60 percent of the search market--and your market share is still rising--you have a pretty soft cushion to fall back on. We believe the G-force will take a licking and keep on ticking in 2008.

9. Microsoft Will Buy Yahoo

Magic 8-Ball says: Signs point to yes

This prediction has almost as many rings in its trunk as the forecast of a Net meltdown does. This year, trotting out the time-honored prognostication are CNN Money columnist Paul R. LaMonica, Mashable blogger Adam Ostrow, and UK snarkmeisters The Inquirer, among others. Rumors about a possible deal also swirled in 2007 (and 2006) but were never truly laid to rest.

This year it really makes sense. Google is pulling farther ahead of Microsoft and Yahoo in search, and everything Microsoft has tried so far to boost its market share has failed. Meanwhile, Microsoft stock is near its highest point since the dot-com crash, making acquisitions cheaper, while Yahoo's stock is at its lowest ebb since early 2004.

Microsoft may keep only the bits of Yahoo it wants and parcel out the rest; the FTC might have something to say about the antitrust implications of such a deal (and the EU definitely would). But we think this one will finally pan out in 2008. And if not, we'll predict it again next year. Why? If we don't, somebody else will.

10. Your Next Pet Will Require Batteries

Magic 8-Ball says: Cannot predict now

Though personal robotics have slowly insinuated themselves into our lives, typically they've been appliances such as iRobot's Roomba vacuum or toys like Wowwee Robotics' Robosapien. In 2008, some trend watchers predict that people will begin to adopt robots as pets.

Ugobe's amazingly lifelike Pleo baby-dinosaur bot finally made its debut in 2007, to mostly rave reviews. Sony is apparently considering bringing its AIBO robo-dog back from the pet cemetery--only this time, instead of $2000 worth of electronics inside its skull, the computerized canine would be controlled by a PlayStation 3 or PSP and a Wi-Fi connection. Hanson Robotics' Zeno is also controlled via Wi-Fi; he/it looks like a 3D version of Astro Boy, with a soft rubber "skin" and a face that displays emotions. When Zeno will be available for sale, however, hasn't been announced.

Whether you'll warm to the idea of robots as companions probably depends on what you thought of Steven Spielberg's AI. But the idea of no litter box or yard waste to clean up has a definite appeal.

PC World Contributing Editor Dan Tynan predicts that some readers won't agree with him, so he invites them to weigh in with their own takes, and predictions, in the comments below.